It's Still The Economy, Stupid


Friday, June 20, 2003  

Alert: Tax Rates and Federal Revenue Move Together

From Angry Bear, this graph of Federal Revenue by year, on a deflated and per capita basis. To derive this, I took annual Tax Revenue (all sources) for 1980-2000, converted to constant 1996 dollars using the GDP deflator rather than the CPI, and then divided the constant dollar numbers by the U.S. population in each year. This should represent federal revenue over time, controlled for inflation and population growth.

A few observations leap out: (1) Revenue declined after the 1981 tax cut. (2) Revenue did start increasing after 1983 (reflecting two things: first, some taxes were raised in 1983 and after; second, 1983 was when the first year shown in the graph without a recession. (3) After Clinton raised taxes, in 1993, federal revenue took off. This partly reflects the boom, but that didn't really get into full swing until 1996.

So, on balance, it looks like when you raise federal tax rates, federal tax revenue goes up (at least for rates under 50%), and vice-versa. Stunning. (click to enlarge)



AB

posted by Angry Bear | 10:01 AM |


Wednesday, June 18, 2003  

Alabama, Home of Progressive Politics

From the home state of 11th Circuit Court Nominee-who-must-be-stopped, Bill Pryor, also comes a plan to increase Alabama's overall state taxes by 14%, progressively. To wit, the proposed property tax "would mean an extra $93 a year in state taxes for the owner who lives in an $85,000 house, which is about the average value for Alabama; and an extra $706 for the owner who lives in a $300,000 house. The owner of a house worth $50,000 or less would pay no state property tax." Alabama's current tax system, based mostly on sales and property taxes, is very regressive, so it's unclear whether the new taxes would actually make the state's system progressive or just less regressive.

Oh, and Alabama Governor Bob Riley is a Republican. Still, he got the bill through the Alabama House and Senate by basically arguing that the alternative was massive cuts in programs, including education (the proposed plan will apparently cover the shortfall and increase education funding). Needless to say, Riley's party isn't happy with him. Riley's tax plan goes to the voters on September 9th, should be fun to watch.

And, of course, there is a blogger who is following this issue: Michael from A Minority of One.

AB

UPDATE: Fixed the link to A Minority of One.

posted by Angry Bear | 9:19 AM |


Tuesday, June 17, 2003  

The Circle is Complete

Read this piece: Job Market Worst Since Early 1990s. When finished, click here and picture Bush qua Mr. Burns.

AB

posted by Angry Bear | 2:11 PM |
 

Theocracy is Bad for Economic Growth

As I argued here, there is a historical connection between how open a society is and the rate of technological progress and economic growth. So I'm cross-posting this here, even though it may seem off topic.

This guy should really be kept far, far, away from the 11th Circuit Court, or any other Federal bench. Signorile's got a great overview of Pryor's views. In a nutshell, Pryor's view is that we need God--the Christian God--everywhere...In schools, courts, federal buildings, your office, your car, and, especially, your bedroom. The "so- called separation of church and state" must be eliminated. And, if you are having sex, stop it. Oh, and women have no choice on the issue of abortion. Gays? "A constitutional right that protects ‘the choice of one’s partner’ and ‘whether and how to connect sexually' must logically extend to activities like prostitution, adultery, necrophilia, bestiality, possession of child pornography and even incest and pedophilia." I'm just guessing here, but he's probably not real big on minorities and women outside of the kitchen.

Given the nominees this administration keeps putting up (Owens, Pryor, Pickering, Estrada), about the only thing that would surprise me--and it wouldn't surprise me that much--is for Rehnquist to resign and Bush to nominate Ken Starr to the Supreme Court.

For more on Pryor go here and to see what you can do to oppose confirmation of this would-be theocrat, go here.

AB

posted by Angry Bear | 11:16 AM |
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