Yes, I've been absent way too long.

Anyway, over on Wampum, I questioned whether we're in danger of a double-dip recession, either real or perceived:

Another disappointing report out this morning:

Factory orders falter: August slide of 0.8% is wider than expected, sparked by downturn in transportation-related items.

October 2, 2003: 10:04 AM EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for U.S. manufactured goods tumbled in August, the Commerce Department said Thursday in a report that provided another sign America's manufacturing sector is ailing.

Commerce said factory orders dropped a larger-than-expected 0.8 percent in August, led by a 2.3 percent drop in transportation-related orders. Orders for durable goods -- items meant to last three or more years -- were revised to a 1.1 percent decline from the 0.9 percent drop reported last week. Factory orders for July, however, were revised up slightly in Thursday's report, to a 2.0 percent gain.

This news comes on less than glowing reports out this week from consumer and manufacturing watchdog groups. At this point, the only shining star is home sales, sparked by still low, though rising, interest rates. Even GDP, at 3.3% for the 2nd quarter, is below what economists expect for healthy growth (3.5%).

Key economic indicators (source: MSNBC)

• Consumer Confidence: Sept: 76.8 Aug: 81.7
• Retail sales: Aug: 0.6% July: 1.3%
• GDP: Q2: 3.3% Q1: 1.4%
• ISM Index: Sept: 53.7 Aug: 54.7
• Factory Orders: Sept: -0.8% Aug: 2.0%
• Unemployment Rate: Aug: 6.1% July: 6.2%
• Employment situation: Aug: -93,000 July: -49,000
• Consumer inflation: Aug: 1.3% July: 1.5%
• Housing starts: Aug: 1,820,000 July: 1,892,000
• Home sales: Aug: 7,620,000 July: 7,242,000

Tomorrow, new unemployment numbers come out. If they're worse than expected, a slight uptick, then the Administration may be happy for the cover the Plame Affair offers. The ire of an awakening media may be more appealing than that of an angry, unemployed electorate, particularly since the latter influences those "unimportant" poll numbers.

Also, like Teddy, I took a crack at the September employment situation release. I expanded a bit on the impact on IDEA (the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) in comments over at Atrios, and since Haloscan is known to be tempermental, will include them here as well:

I forgot to mention above that the educational support is also being cut while IDEA (the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) is being weaken by Republicans in Congress. So there won't be classroom aides for special needs kids, and parents won't have legal recourse to force school districts to follow the kid's IEP (education plans.) More disabled kids will act up without such support, and under the "new, improved" IDEA, teachers will have them pulled from classrooms, and shipped off to special schools, out of the "mainstream". Of course, this allows their school test scores to increase, since under NCLB, even special ed kids have to be tested and show improvement every year.

Of course, sending kids off to institutions is much more expensive for school districts, and tax payers pick up the bill. But Repugs will figure out a way to overturn the "free and appropriate education" decision of the Supreme Court in the early '70s.